As global supply chains continue to evolve, staying informed about market developments is more important than ever. Our quarterly Air Logistics Market Update shares insights into the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the air freight industry.

Global demand and capacity - Demand growth exceeds capacity recovery, keeping market conditions tight

Demand

• Global air cargo demand increased by 6% year-on-year in Q2 2026 (based on WorldACD data), even as the Middle East conflict created market uncertainty and operational disruptions. 

• After demand contracted in March, the decline proved short-lived, with positive year-on-year growth recorded in each month of Q2. Although geopolitical tensions and operational challenges in the Middle East continued to affect market conditions, demand growth continued and even strengthened towards the end of the quarter.

• Demand growth was led by Asia-origin traffic, particularly on routes to the United States, while intra-Asia remained the fastest-growing regional market. Strong growth was also observed on Asia–North America and Asia–Middle East corridors.

• Technology cargo, including AI-related and other high-tech shipments, remained a key growth driver, particularly on transpacific and intra-Asia routes. At the same time, growth in Chinese e-commerce showed signs of moderation.

Capacity

• Global air cargo capacity grew by 2% year-on-year in Q2 2026 (based on Rotate data) and continued to recover, although growth remained below demand, keeping capacity availability constrained.

• Capacity recovery remained limited by the continued impact of Middle East-related disruptions. While Gulf carriers gradually restored operations and regional airspace reopened, some European and Asian airlines continued to avoid Middle East routings and hubs, preventing a full recovery of available capacity.

• To mitigate these operational constraints, airlines adjusted network structures, shifting capacity to direct Europe-Asia and Europe–Africa services and utilising alternative routings where necessary.

• Airlines also redeployed capacity toward higher-yielding markets, allocating additional capacity to Asia–North America services. While this strengthened capacity availability on select trade lanes, it reduced capacity on others, resulting in an uneven recovery across markets and leaving some routes underserved.

Regional market developments

Europe - Improving demand–capacity balance supported by additional capacity

• Demand softened seasonally into the summer. However, capacity constraints on Europe–Middle East trade lanes continued to affect routing decisions, prompting some cargo flows to shift to direct Europe-Asia and Europe–Africa services and supporting demand on these routes.

• The gradual return of Middle Eastern carrier capacity, together with additional transatlantic belly capacity, improved the overall demand-capacity balance across Europe during Q2.

• However, capacity reductions announced by several major airlines, including cuts to intra-European services (Lufthansa and KLM) and international schedules to Europe (United Airlines), introduced uncertainty over the pace of future capacity growth.

Middle East - Regional carriers recover but overall capacity remains below pre-conflict levels

• Market conditions remained highly volatile throughout Q2 2026 with strongest activity in perishables, healthcare, aerospace, and oil & gas sectors.

• Capacity recovered gradually during the quarter as airspace restrictions were lifted and Middle Eastern carriers restored operations, bringing major regional airlines close to pre-conflict capacity levels. However, the region's overall air cargo capacity remained below pre-conflict levels as North American, European, and Asian carriers did not resume services to the Middle East.

• Smaller markets such as Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, and Kuwait continued to face limited capacity availability and dependence on alternative routings.

Americas - Stable regional capacity hides constraints on key trade lanes

• The Middle East conflict contributed to volatility in import and export flows at the start of the quarter but market conditions stabilised as the quarter progressed.

• Capacity remained generally stable across the region supported by additional summer passenger-belly capacity on transatlantic services.

• Capacity constraints persisted within and beyond the transatlantic market. Reduced freighter lift following airline capacity redeployments tightened supply in key US gateways, while capacity shortages continued on select intercontinental trade lanes.

Asia - Demand leadership continues as capacity struggles to keep pace

• Asia remained the primary driver of global air cargo demand growth in Q2 2026, supported by strong exports to North America and Europe, robust high-tech and semiconductor shipments, e-commerce frontloading, and increased demand related to Middle East oil, gas and reconstruction projects.

• Capacity growth outpaced other regions, particularly on services to North America, supported by the gradual recovery of Middle Eastern carriers and the redeployment of capacity from other trade lanes.

• However, the increase in available capacity remained insufficient to keep pace with strong demand growth.