In an online session on Wednesday, 19 November, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen highlighted two uncertainties to look out for in 2026.
The first issue raised by logistics experts in the call is related to a possible surge in replenishment activity, which could create a boost in container shipping demands.
Inventory restocking would have quite a big effect
CEO of Hapag-Lloyd
Habben Jansen, estimating the probability of this happening as “well above 50%”, stated that restocking is expected to push container demand up by over 4% next year, compared to the 4.7% growth recorded so far this year.
At the moment, reliable data about the state of inventories in the United States is hard to find, given the recent US government shutdown, which adds to the uncertainty concerning restock outlooks.
However, Lars Jensen, shipping analyst and CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime, notes that if the US achieves greater economic stability next year, it could result in substantial restocking.
Suez Canal return
The second uncertainty facing the market is the possible return to the Suez Canal.
Experts believe a mass return to the waterway could lead to significant congestion in Europe, the Mediterranean and Asia, says Jansen.
While the Asia-Europe trade could see a direct impact, other trades to Europe might also face congestion pressure.
Jansen also expects a quick return could create a ripple effect, impacting the US East Coast services.
Kuehne + Nagel’s executive vice president for sea logistics, Michael Aldwell, believes congestion could be driven by vessel bunching, but landside bottlenecks caused by trucking shortages may also occur.
Nevertheless, Aldwell expects carriers would use both the Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope routings until there is clear proof of safety to fully return to the Red Sea.
Habben Jansen remarked that the likelihood of severe congestion in both the Mediterranean and Northern Europe is extremely high once carriers revert to their usual routes.
But he indicated that Hapag-Lloyd does not plan to resume Red Sea transits just yet, although the company already has a strategy prepared for when it chooses to switch back.
A plan on the shelf to follow
CEO of Hapag-Lloyd
Analyst Lars Jensen said carriers may choose to make a full return to the Canal after next year's Chinese New Year.
The seasonal blank sailings, usually scheduled around this season, could provide an advantageous window to mitigate congestion risks at key gateways in Northern Europe and North America.
