9 November 2023 (Lloyd's List) - IMPORTS to US major ports reached their highest level so far this year in September, crossing the 2m teu threshold for the first time since October last year.
The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest report that imports to the 13 largest US box ports reached 2.03m teu last month, beating their earlier projection by 4.6%, or about 90,000 teu.
NRF supply chain vice president Jonathan Gold said retailers are expecting record-setting sales during the holiday season this year and have stocked accordingly to fulfill the expected demand.
The NRF is expecting growth of 3% to 4% year over year, in line with pre-pandemic holiday rates.
However, as most holiday cargo had already arrived, the NRF said, imports to the nation’s major ports are expected to slow during the remainder of the year.
Hackett and the NRF expect October imports fell 4.2% year on year to 1.92m teu, while November is forecast at 1.88m teu, a 5.8% increase from the same period last year, and the first year-on-year volume growth since June 2022.
December is forecast at 1.85m teu, a 6.8% year-on-year increase.
However, a separate report by logistics and software provider Descartes that tallies imports across all US ports based on US Customs and Border Protection data pointed to more strength in October.
It said October imports stood at 2.3m teu, a 3.9% year-on-year increase and a 11.4% increase from the same period in pre-pandemic October 2019. It said it was the first time import volumes increased in double digits from the same period in 2019.
Year to date, import volumes are within 3.4% from 2019 levels, Descartes said.
“October has traditionally been a stronger month than September,” Descartes executive vice president of industry Chris Jones said.
“However, the last two months show an increase above pre-pandemic 2019 import levels, which are counter to the declines expected at the end of the year.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said economic conditions in the US are better than in Europe and Asia, allowing consumers to keep spending and dip into their savings.
The decline in consumer demand in both regions has worsened the overcapacity faced by liners who rushed to order newbuildings during the pandemic’s cargo surge. A worsening of global trade conditions could ultimately adversely impact supply chains, he warned.
“US consumers stand out in the global economy as they continue to benefit from job and wage growth and are still able to dip into savings accumulated during the pandemic,” Hackett said.
“While US consumers are doing well, a global recession in cargo trade could potentially affect the supply chain.”
