In the past couple of years, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) invested in a more advanced hurricane modelling technology, enabling it to better forecast and prepare for adverse weather phenomena.
Most recently, the NOAA predicted “a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.” The season, which usually extends between 1 June and 30 November, brings along a series of windstorms as part of a phenomenon titled El Niño. The term describes the warming of the water surface in the Pacific Ocean, eventually leading to unusual wind movement.
According to the NOAA a range of 12 to 17 total named storms are due this year, of which five to nine could develop into hurricanes. The agency expects one to four storms could become major hurricanes this season, meaning they could be of the category 3, 4 or 5 (winds of 111 mph or higher).
The NOAA adds in a press release that it "predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season."
While meteorologists believe the upcoming season will be less active than in recent years, analysts estimate it will have some repercussions on the shipping industry. Last year, several weather storms caused significant disruption at ports on the west coast of both North and South America.
