7 June 2024 (Lloyd's List) - ARRIVALS to Ukraine’s ports have fallen for two consecutive months as the country awaits the new harvest season. While traffic is expected to rebound, analysts are uncertain about future export volumes.

There were 509 and 444 cargo-carrying vessel calls to Ukraine in April and May respectively, equating to 8.8m dwt and 7.2m dwt, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.

Vessels capable of carrying grain account for most of the arrivals, recording 396 calls in April and 334 in May, equating to 8.2m dwt and 6.6m dwt respectively.

The drop in activity is being seen both at Ukraine’s deepsea ports and smaller Danube river ports.

It is normal for maritime traffic to slow during these months as it is Ukraine’s offseason and expectations are that trade flows will pick up in a couple months with the arrival of the new harvest.

Daniil Melnychenko, data analyst at Ukrainian consultancy Informall BG said: “Ukraine is mainly an agricultural exporter, and right now it is simply low season, so activity is going to pick up in July and August likely with a peak in September.”

But this depended on the outcome of the harvest, he added.

The Ukrainian Grain Association recently lowered the country’s grain and oilseed crop harvest estimate in 2024 to 74.6m tonnes. The UGA estimated the 2023 harvest to be 82.8m tonnes.

Early forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture further suggest a weaker outlook for Ukraine in the 2024-2025 season as declining production is expected to take a toll on grain exports.

It is not just the availability of cargo that could impact seaborne trade flows; concerns are growing over the impact of Russia’s relentless strikes against Ukraine’s infrastructure.

Strikes on Ukraine’s port facilities increased after Russia’s withdrawal from the UN-brokered Black Sea Initiative in July 2023.

The image below shows the locations of air and drone strikes in the Odesa region from July 1, 2023 to May 24, 2024.

Odesa is the primary target in that area, but the smaller river ports located along the Danube have are also subject to attacks.

UN representatives have condemned attacks on civilian infrastructure and say the strikes on ports are threatening the country’s ability to export grain at a time of growing food insecurity.

Odesa-based Lloyd’s agent Eurogal shared details of the damage caused after a Russian attack on an agricultural terminal in the Black Sea port of Yuzhnyi in April.

Some 10,000 tonnes of oil was destroyed as well as 10 storage tanks belonging to a Singaporean company.

The oil handling terminal was damaged, and over 3,000 sq m of land contaminated with oil.

Actual damage aside, the attacks impact port operations with work having to stop during air raids and a general lack of electricity slowing down the process.

Katerina Kononenko, a port agent at Avalon Shipping, a shipping agency specialising in the transit of vessels through the Sulina channel to ports in Romania and Ukraine, said: “Russia is actively destroying our energy system. In Chornomorsk the power is off for eight to 10 hours a day, which means the port is reducing its work. It is the same situation in Reni where electricity is supplied according to a schedule.”

There is also the issue of ongoing mobilisation which impacts the entire economy and means there is a growing shortage of key port workers and truck drivers, she added.

Ukraine regained complete control of its maritime trade last September when it independently reopened its Black Sea ports after the collapse of the UN-brokered Black Sea Initiative.

Prior to this only Ukraine’s Danube river ports were operating without external oversight.

Overall, arrivals as measured by dwt are down approximately 31% on pre-war volumes across the January to May period.

Arrivals of vessels capable of carrying grain are down just 12% on pre-war levels.

This is impressive given the pre-war levels include data from the deepsea ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson which have been closed since Russia’s invasion.

Arrivals of vessels capable of carrying grain is 80% higher than during the same time last year under the Black Sea Initiative.