28 December 2023 (Lloyd's List) - SHIPS transiting the Red Sea are increasingly claiming to have armed guards on board in order to deter potential attacks.

Ships captains are adapting Automatic Identification System signals to include warnings to would be attackers that their vessel is carrying armed security and several are now stating that their vessel has no affiliation or contact with Israel.

While the AIS signal broadcasts a ship’s position, course, and speed, the destination field is manually inputted and is being used by crew to issue the warnings.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data, a total of 85 ships in, or approaching the Red Sea on Thursday had included a message in their AIS signal stating that the ship was carrying armed security. Three China-owned vessels had opted to include the message “VL NO CONTACT ISRAEL”.

During recent days as much as 45%-50% of the traffic transiting the security hotspots have opted to include some form of AIS warning.

Such tactics have been employed by ships for several years when passing through dangerous areas, however this is the first time that the trend has been used so extensively.

Some vessels had initially moved to switch off AIS signals altogether when transiting the Red Sea, particularly when transiting under military escort. However, that approach does little to hide a vessel’s position from attackers when passing the Bab el Mandeb strait which is just 26 km wide at its narrowest point.

US officials have also stated that the Iranian vessel Behshad (IMO: 9167289) stationed in the Red Sea since 2021 has been used as a spy ship and likely has the ability to map out all vessels in real-time irrespective of AIS usage.

According to US intelligence analysis this vessel provided information as to the location of Galaxy Leader (IMO: 9237307) that was hijacked by the Houthis — despite Galaxy Leader having turned off its AIS.

Despite the increasing use of AIS warnings, the number of armed security being deployed does not appear to have increased as dramatically as the AIS signal might suggest.

Several security firms approached by Lloyd’s List said that enquiries have spiked, but there has not been a significant increase in deployment of armed guards.

Partly that is born out of security concerns from the shipping companies. While armed security deployment was successfully used in the fight against piracy threats, even the most highly trained private security firms are unable to defend a ship against the unmanned aerial vehicles used by the Houthis against commercial shipping in recent weeks.

“If you’re looking at a missile threat, a UAV threat or another Galaxy Leader incident with paramilitary teams coming down from helicopters, then armed guards are really not going to be helpful,” said Corey Ranslem, chief executive of security intelligence firm Dryad Global.

While the coalition of naval assets in the region under the largely US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian does offer a more robust level of protection against such threats, shipowners appear to be divided on whether there is yet sufficient protection in place to risk re-entering the Red Sea.

Maersk said on Saturday it would resume shipping operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but Hapag-Lloyd believes the Red Sea remains too dangerous and will continue to send ships around the Cape of Good Hope.

Part of the reluctance to return stems from widespread confusion over how sustainable and extensive Operational Prosperity Guardian will be.

According to the US, Prosperity Guardian is a defensive coalition of more than 20 nations, however ten days after the task force was launched details about the task force remain scant.

“We’re still trying to determine what the rules of engagement are here and there’s a lot we don’t know yet about how Prosperity Guardian is going to be set up,” said Ranslem.

While Prosperity Guardian appears to be coordinating efforts between existing coalition naval assets in the region, political disagreements over involvement have hampered the operation.

The EU had initially signaled its support of the maritime task force, but that support then faced opposition from Spain which blocked a move to use the existing EU anti-piracy mission, Atalanta, to protect Red Sea shipping.

That appears to have been partially resolved when Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he was willing to consider the creation of a different mission to tackle the problem, however the political complexities have left many in the industry concerned regarding the

sustainability of the security operations.