8 September 2023 (Lloyd's List) - FALLING water levels in the Panama Canal may be the current concern for the shipping industry, but in the longer term it may be that too much water is the real problem.
A new report from Lloyd’s Register warns that rising sea levels caused by climate change could render some ports inoperable as soon as 2050 unless urgent action is taken on decarbonisation.
LR, and its charitable wing, the Lloyd’s Register Foundation, have called on maritime and supply chain stakeholders to prepare contingency plans to deal with “significant changes and possible future scenarios”, including ports becoming unusable due to sea level rises.
Global Maritime Trends 2050 was launched ahead of London International Shipping Week, as part of a multi-year Global Maritime Trends programme. It analyses likely future scenarios for shipping in 2050, based on the speed of technology adoption and the level of global collaboration, to help the industry forecast risks, opportunities, and required investment.
Other potential consequences of these changes included in the report were African countries becoming the dominant supplier of seafarers by 2050, and women making up 25% of the workforce by the same date.
“As the maritime sector prepares to decarbonise its activities and supply chains, while navigating an increasingly uncertain geopolitical, economic and social landscape, it is important for industry and policymakers to start envisaging what possible futures could look like,” the report says.
“Global co-operation and the integration of technology—be it rapid or gradual—will be crucial preconditions to secure futures that are conducive to a thriving maritime economy.”
LR chief executive Nick Brown said the report was an opportunity for companies to prepare for change and to take action, and warned that shipping lagged behind other sectors in its ability to forecast and prepare for future scenarios.
“From tackling the energy transition to sourcing the next generation of seafarers, we’ve allowed uncertainty to delay action for too long,” he said. “Now we’ve created a way for the industry to gain a much better idea of the future, and both the opportunities and risks of decisions and strategies over the coming years.”
Among the scenarios the report looks into are the possibility that sea levels will rise by as much as 40 cm by 2050, which is in line with the International Panel on Climate Change’s forecast of 29 cm-51 cm by 2100.
If this were the case, ports including Houston, Shanghai and Rouen could be rendered unusable, the report says.
“Ports are the arteries of global trade,” LR said. “Every $1 of trade flowing through a port generates $4 of global industry output. If ports cannot be used, the financial loss for people relying on them will be severe.”
Repair costs could run to billions of dollars and knock-on supply chain disruptions could have a longer-term cost, it added.
“Shipping is deeply intertwined with geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges,” said LR Foundation chief executive Ruth Boumphrey.
“Amid global supply chain uncertainties, the urgent need to decarbonise, the integration of new technologies, concerns about human rights and safety at sea, and the future of labour supplies, it’s crucial that those in the shipping industry do everything in their power to anticipate, mitigate, and overcome these challenges without causing harm elsewhere.”
