by Manal Barakat, SeaNewsEditor
Two important events are expected in the following weeks for the shipping market. The Chinese New Year (CNY) in 2025 starts on 29 January, which closely coincides with the launch of new carrier alliance networks.
Analysts have recently discussed how the potential impact of the two events, which could lead to significant supply chain disruptions.
Typically, CNY results in a drop in demand, causing blank sailings. This year, the transition from existing alliance services to new ones may exacerbate these disruptions.
The closures of factories in the Chinese region are expected to last approximately two weeks starting the CNY. However, ports will remain operational throughout the period, albeit with reduced capacity.
The region might also see a shortage of drivers during the holidays, which could limit road transportation until early February.
Meanwhile, ocean carriers have adjusted some of their sailings in preparation for the holidays.
Research and analysis firm Sea Intelligence published a report comparing capacity and blank sailing data over a 10-year period to foresee the impact of the CNY closures.
While the firm noted a growth trend in this year's capacity compared to previous years, it also expects significant blank sailings in the coming months, specifically on the Asia-North America West Coast trade.
It adds that the phase-in of the new alliances could be a key cause for uncertainty.
"The major unknown factor this time is the phase-in of the new networks by MSC, Gemini Cooperation, and Premier Alliance, writes Sea Intel.
"This introduces an uncertainty, whereby the carriers might prioritise getting their vessels phased into the new networks, at the expense of not blanking as much capacity as usual."
