As a leader in sea logistics, Kuehne+Nagel closely tracks and collects data on the movement of vessels, including actual arrivals and vessel delays. A summary of this analysis based on neutral data is published monthly in our Schedule Reliability Report, available on Sea News.

Executive Summary

Overall, on-time performance continued to weaken for a fourth consecutive month to 45.8% in February. ​​This decline was, however, less pronounced than in the previous three months.

On a year-on-year basis, February’s performance was 18 percentage points lower than last year. ​

Trade month-on-month improvements were observed on five of the 11 major trades, including the transpacific and the transatlantic.​

On the other hand, reliability on Asia<->Mediterranean/Black Sea and Asia<-> North Europe fell by 9.5 and 3.9 percentage points, respectively.​

Blank sailing data covering weeks 6 to 9 recorded eight blank sailings on Asia-North Europe westbound. This translates to 12% of the total offered capacity in February. ​

For the transpacific eastbound, 36 sailings were void, equaling 15.6% of the total capacity offered. In contrast, only one sailing, or 1.2% of the total offered capacity, was cancelled on the transatlantic westbound. ​

It is worth noting that the Chinese New Year holidays coincided with week 7, and most blank sailings occurred in week 9.

Global On-Time Performance

Global on-time performance declined by 1.3 percentage points month-on-month to 45.8%​

While the decline is less steep than those seen in Q4 2023, February’s performance has dropped to levels last seen in August 2022. ​

As illustrated in the figure below, the reduction in arrival delays follows three months of steady increase, which began in November of last year.

Despite the overall decline in global on-time performance, the average arrival delay of LATE vessels improved to 4 days in February. ​

In the case of ALL vessels, the global monthly average delay plateaued at 2 days in February after consistently increasing in the last three months.

​In addition, compared to February 2023, ALL vessels arrived 0.5 days later.

Reliability per Trade Lane

While all trades displayed a decline in on-time performance in January, certain major trades showed significant improvement in February. ​

For example, transatlantic schedule reliability increased by 10 percentage points month-on-month to 54.4%​.

Similarly, North Europe <-> South America gained 13.8 percentage points, reaching 76.1%. ​

On the other hand, on-time performance on Mediterranean trades recorded further declines last month.

Of these, Mediterranean <-> North America observed the steepest month-on-month decline, dropping by 9.9 percentage points to 31.4%.​

On a positive note, on-time performance for Asia <-- North America remained stable in February at 43.8% compared to 43.5% the month before. 

Reliability on Asia <-> North Europe

The figure below shows an uptick in the on-time performance of the westbound leg in February of 4.8 percentage points to 34.4%. ​​

Compared with February 2023 (the second-lowest month of that year), reliability last month was 12.8 percentage points lower. 

In addition, the arrival delay of LATE ships was 0.2 days lower than in January, averaging 4.2 days.

For ALL vessels, the average arrival delay was 2.7 days, 0.3 days lower than in January.

Blank sailing data recorded eight blank sailings on westbound Asia-North Europe. This translates to 12% of blanked capacity from weeks 6 to 9. ​​

In contrast to the westbound leg, vessel performance on North Europe - Asia declined further last month. ​​As illustrated in the figure below, on-time performance fell by 7.4 percentage points between January and February to 35.6%.​​February’s performance is in line with levels last seen in August 2022.​​

Additionally, the average arrival delay for LATE vessels increased month-on-month by 0.3 days to 3.7 days last month. ​

Similarly, the average arrival delay of ALL vessels rose by 0.4 days to 2.4 days in February. ​

Methodology

Calculating the on-time performance

To calculate the on-time performance of a service, Kuehne+Nagel uses vessel schedules from carrier(s) offering that service. Only carrier schedules that match our quality criteria are used for the schedule reliability calculation.

As carriers update schedules constantly, they become more accurate the closer vessels get to a destination port. For this reason, we have implemented a "schedule freeze period" of 14 days prior to actual vessel arrival. In other words, we benchmark the actual arrival with what carriers last announced 14 days earlier. To identify the actual time of arrival, Kuehne+Nagel consumes AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel data. All vessels which arrive within a +/- 24-hour window at the port of destination compared to the last announced arrival are considered to be on time.

Assigning carrier services to multiple trade lanes

Many services operate on various trade lanes (e.g. a carrier service between Asia and North Europe also calls ports in the Middle East and/or the Mediterranean), and therefore carrier services may be listed in multiple trade lanes.

Definition of trade lanes

There is no common standard for the definition of trade lanes. This means, depending on the source, you will find different trade lanes as well as different regions, countries and ports assigned to a trade lane. Kuehne+Nagel has defined its own way of mapping and has assigned ports to these trade lanes accordingly. The on-time performance of vessels is captured in our reports on defined main trades, meaning trades that move large container volumes on vessels. Therefore, niche trades and services within one trade, called "Intra Trade "services (e.g. Intra-Asia, Intra-Europe), are currently out of scope.