As a leader in sea logistics, Kuehne+Nagel closely tracks and collects data on the movement of vessels, including actual arrivals and vessel delays. Kuehne+Nagel is publishing a summary of this analysis in monthly Schedule Reliability reports based entirely on neutral data. This summary is available within SeaNews in seaexplorer as well as in myKN for all Kuehne+Nagel customers and myKN subscribers.
Global On-Time Performance
August schedule reliability reached 65.0%, according to seaexplorer data. 2023 global on-time performances have seen some fluctuation over the course of the year. Nevertheless, last month's percentage remained in line with the post-pandemic levels we have seen so far.
The figure below illustrates how schedule reliability progressed since January 2023. 65% of vessels globally were on-time in August. The average of all levels since January is approximately 64.6%. Therefore, it is fair to say that this month’s level reflects stability in schedule reliability. Compared to 2022, this month’s levels increased by nearly 21 percentage points.
The global monthly average delay in the arrival of LATE vessels did not improve in August. LATE vessels, which are defined as ships that arrive after the 24-hour margin of their expected time of arrival, were 3.5 days late on average. While this might seem a relatively long time, it is an improvement compared to last year, when the average reached 4.7 days.
For ALL vessels, the data refers to an increase in delays. Vessels globally had an average delay in arrival of 1.1 days, which is a slight increase from July’s 0.9 days. The average is, however, 50% of last year’s average of 2.2 days.
Reliability per Trade Lane
Of the three major trade lanes (Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe), the Transpacific had the lowest on-time performance (50.8%) in August. On the other hand, the Transatlantic route had the highest on-time performance, with 76.5%.
The graph below shows all main trade lanes and the on-time performance in August on each trade. For several months in a row, vessels on the Mediterranean/Black Sea – South America route sustained their high-level performance, achieving 84.5% in August. The schedule reliability of vessels on the Transpacific had the lowest level among all main trades.
Reliability on the Transpacific
Given that the Transpacific route had the lowest on-time performance last month, we will take a focused look at the levels on the westbound and eastbound of this route. The data shows a dramatic drop in schedule reliability on the westbound journey of the Transpacific. The level dropped nearly 13 percentage points from 66.7% in July to 53.9% in August.
The monthly average delay of arrival of LATE vessels on the westbound also increased from 3.1 days to 3.7 days.
The levels remained stable on the eastbound of the Transpacific. As illustrated below, there was a slight decrease in the on-time performance of vessels sailing from Asia to North America, reaching 44.5%. This was also reflected in the monthly average arrival delay of LATE vessels, which was 3.9 days in August, dropping only 0.1 days from July.
Conclusion
Global on-time performance dropped to 65% in August. The drop was also generally seen in the schedule reliability of vessels on main trade lanes.
Of the three major trade lanes (Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-North Europe), the Transpacific had the lowest on-time performance (50.8%) in August. On the other hand, the Transatlantic route had the highest on-time performance, with 76.5%.
Methodology
Calculating the on-time performance
To calculate the on-time performance of a service, Kuehne+Nagel uses vessel schedules from carrier(s) offering that service. Only carrier schedules that match our quality criteria are used for the schedule reliability calculation.
As carriers update schedules constantly, they become more accurate the closer vessels get to a destination port. For this reason, we have implemented a "schedule freeze period" of 14 days prior to actual vessel arrival. In other words, we benchmark the actual arrival with what carriers last announced 14 days earlier. To identify the actual time of arrival, Kuehne+Nagel consumes AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel data. All vessels which arrive within a +/- 24-hour window at the port of destination compared to the last announced arrival are considered to be on time.
Assigning carrier services to multiple trade lanes
Many services operate on various trade lanes (e.g. a carrier service between Asia and North Europe also calls ports in the Middle East and or the Mediterranean), and therefore carrier services may be listed in multiple trade lanes.
Definition of trade lanes
There is no common standard for the definition of trade lanes. This means, depending on the source, you will find different trade lanes as well as different regions, countries and ports assigned to a trade lane. Kuehne+Nagel has defined its own way of mapping and has assigned ports to these trade lanes accordingly. On-time performances of vessels are captured in our reports on defined main trades, meaning trades moving large container volumes on vessels. Therefore, niche trades and services within one trade, called „Intra Trade“ services (e.g. Intra-Asia, Intra-Europe) are currently out of scope.
