The shipping industry has never been short of challenges. The unexpected events of the last couple of years serve as proof that the global supply chain could be subject to unpredictable events at any time. That said, certain trends emerged last year, allowing industry experts to paint a picture of how this year could look like for ocean shipping. Economy and Geopolitics The Russia-Ukraine conflict that erupted last year continues to negatively impact the world as a whole, including the shipping sector. One of the key elements it influenced is the availability and the prices of energy, which skyrocketed for the average consumer as well as shipping companies and carriers. Experts believe a global recession for the remainder of 2023 is now inevitable. The slowdown in economic activity expected this year would take a toll on container shipping demands worldwide. The latest market update by Maersk expects global container demand to fall by 2% to 4% this year, decreasing shipping rates faster than expected. Nevertheless, the drop in rates will vary depending on a number of elements, including trade lanes, container carriers and the nature of a shipper’s business. According to a survey conducted by Container xChange, which asked industry leaders about their logistics-related concerns for this year, 88% of respondents cited inflation and recession as their number one fear. They expect the rising inflation could be met with more industrial action bringing potential chaos to the market. Supply Chain Disruption Again, the drop in demand played a major role in clearing the congestion at key ports. It is, therefore, unlikely that this year will witness the same container vessels logjam as last year. According to Sea Intelligence analysts, a look at the upward and downward curve of global congestion over the past two years shows “a full reversal to normality should come in March 2023.” In terms of schedule reliability, this comes hand-in-hand with the level of disruption at ports. Recent reports show a consistent positive improvement when it comes to reliability, and this is expected to continue in 2023. However, as inflation and food and energy prices remain high, there are still concerns that unresolved labour issues could cause bottlenecks this year. The UK started 2023 with nationwide rail strikes, and it is not yet clear if contract negotiations for US West Coast dockworkers will take a turn for the better or the worse this year. Daniel Richards, a risk-management expert at Crisis24, told Bloomberg, “Labour unrest is unlikely to decrease going into 2023, and may in fact worsen in the likely event that global economic conditions do not improve.” Ocean Freight Sustainability Decarbonisation will continue to take centre stage on many levels. Multiple conferences and meetings were held in 2022 to shape climate regulations that will govern the steps towards decarbonising ocean freight. Some of the regulations were well-received by stakeholders, such as the Emission Trading System of the European Union, while others were heavily criticised – mainly the Carbon Intensity Index (CII) of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Many analysts believe the CII will not remain in the picture in the future due to its erroneous calculation method. However, the IMO plans to add corrections to it this year. Energy transition was also an important issue last year, especially in terms of exploring alternative fuels. Analysts expect this year to see major investments in researching alternative options to power ships. LNG will remain the most available and the most consumed option, particularly with the large number of new LNG-powered newbuilds expected to hit the market in the near future. Methanol is another option expected to gain ground in 2023 as major liners invested billions of dollars in developing methanol-fuelled boxships in 2022. Technology “The global digital freight forwarding market was valued at $2.92 billion in 2020, and is projected to reach $22.92 billion in 2030,” according to Allied Market Research. Great importance has been placed on digitalising the process of freight forwarding and making it more efficient. This is expected to continue in 2023 as shipping companies seek to gain market clarity through in-depth data analysis and commercial advantage through state-of-the-art shipment tracking technologies.