by Lloyd's List
THE volume of shipping traffic through the Bab el Mandeb is increasing as security fears diminish and shipowners return to the Red Sea.
Analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data shows 1,093 vessels transited the security chokepoint in October — the highest number since March 2024.
The increase in vessel transits marks five consecutive months of traffic being higher than 2024 levels.
Confirmation of a sustained 8% increase on 2024 volumes comes as Yemen’s Houthis formally claimed to have halted to their attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea following the ceasefire in Gaza.
Major General Yusuf al-Madani, chief of the general staff of the Yemeni Armed Forces, which is affiliated with the Houthis, issued an open letter to the general staff of the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military wing.
“We are closely monitoring developments and declare that if the enemy resumes its aggression against Gaza, we will return to our military operations deep inside the Zionist entity, and we will reinstate the ban on Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas,” read the letter.
While the conditional phrasing appears to confirm an end to more than two years of disruption to global maritime trade, the Houthi statement and recent uptick in volumes is unlikely to signal any immediate return for the majority of vessels still diverting away from the Red Sea.
In January, the Houthis promised to limit their attacks on commercial ships after Israel and Hamas agreed a ceasefire, only to escalate their campaign after the truce collapsed.
While the 8% increase on 2024 volumes confirms a sustained trend over the past five months, the figures still remain 60% down compared to 2023 levels prior to the commencement of Houthi attacks targeting ships.
The recent growth in traffic, by volume, is being driven by bulk carriers, vehicle carriers, LPG and product tankers. However, until the big lines return any increase in traffic is likely to be slow and incremental.
While the key lines have not changed their guidance that a full return is “not imminent” a recent flurry of bi-lateral meetings between the Suez Canal Authority and liner executives suggest that plans are being reviewed and timelines assessed.
“Maersk is keen on taking the initiative to fully return to the Suez Canal after holding discussions with the SCA and we are studying all the indicators,” said Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc following a meeting with SCA chairman Admiral Ossama Rabiee.
The SCA chairman has been courting liner executives over recent months in a series of bilateral meetings where he has been urging a swift return to the canal, offering discounted fees as inducements.
“This is an opportune moment to return to transiting through the Suez Canal once more and [Maersk should] seriously consider amending their navigation schedules,” Admiral Rabie said following the meeting with Maersk executives.
Earlier this week CMA CGM sent CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin (IMO: 9706891) through the Red Sea on a return leg to Asia. While CMA CGM has sustained some container transits over the past year with the support of French naval escorts, the CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin transit marks the first large boxship transit for the French line.
Several other CMA CGM operated megaships — including one on a headhaul voyage to Europe — are heading back toward the region, in what appears to be a further attempt by the French carrier to test the waters for a gradual resumption of the critical Asia-Europe corridor, largely disrupted since late 2023 by Houthi attacks.
Maersk, by contrast has stated that it will not be engaging in test run deployments and instead plans to return a full schedule return once it is satisfied the security threat is acceptable. It has also stated it wants to be the first line back in the Red Sea.
“We want Maersk to be the first shipping line to fully resume navigation through Bab el Mandeb ushering in the return of the situation back to normal,” confirmed Maersk chief operating officer Rabab Boulos, speaking during the meeting with the SCA.
MSC, meanwhile, is sticking with its previous position that it will not be returning to the Red Sea until security can be “guaranteed”, but insiders confirm that they continue to monitor the situation.
“The situation in the Suez Canal remains fluid and the security situation is unclear. In order to guarantee the safety of our seafarers and to ensure consistency and predictability of service for our customers, MSC will continue to transit via the Cape of Good Hope until further notice,” MSC told Lloyd’s List in a statement on Tuesday following the Houthi announcement.
While a superficial reading of the Yusuf al-Madani open letter suggests the Houthis have lifted their existing restrictions on Israeli-affiliated vessels transiting the Red Sea, neither Houthi officials nor the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) — the Houthis’ designated entity for managing Red Sea navigation bans — have formally announced any such removal.
Houthi communications have referenced a temporary ceasefire specifically concerning direct attacks on Israel, without extending this to navigation restrictions.
Still captive
Meanwhile, the crew members of Eternity C. (IMO: 9588249) — captured by Houthis in July 2025 following an attack on the vessel — remain in captivity in Sana’a, despite diplomatic efforts by the Philippines and the United Nations to secure their release.
In a speech on November 4, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi stated: “Even after the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, their aggression remains evident as they continue killing. They honour neither agreements nor covenants.
He further said: “Their aggression is unmistakable. In roughly three weeks or a little more, over 250 Palestinians in Gaza have been martyred.” Concluding with: “Anyway, we are certainly heading into another round of confrontation with the Israeli enemy. Our region cannot know stability, security, or peace so long as the Israeli enemy remains an occupier of Palestine and pursues its Zionist scheme against us as a Muslim Ummah.”
In the absence of any explicit official statements, security analysts continue to advise shipping companies operating Israel-linked vessels to regard Red Sea routes as high risk.
