8 December 2023 (Lloyd's List ) - SHIPPING could fall short of its 2030 target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions even if it meets other targets for GHG intensity and reaching 5% uptake of new fuels, a report has found.

The Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping report said shipping had to consider decarbonisation as a whole if it was to meet the aims of the International Maritime Organization’s revised GHG strategy.

But it added investments in energy efficiency could yield big savings in fuel production costs — up to a factor of 10 higher — since using less green fuel would reduce the need to build production plants.

The IMO GHG strategy requires shipping to replace at least 2.6 exajoules of fossil fuels in 2030, equating to around 240m tonnes of CO2 equivalent, while the required volume reaches 8.3 exajoules and 12 exajoules in 2040 and 2050, respectively, according to the report.

The IMO strategy targets a 40% reduction in shipping’s carbon intensity by 2030 from a 2008 baseline as well as reaching 5% uptake of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies, fuels, or energy sources, striving for 10%.

But the report said complying with these two targets will only cut absolute CO2 emissions by 17% by 2030, falling short of the IMO’s new target of 20% by 2030, the centre said in its report.

Meeting the “striving for” target, of cutting absolute emissions by 30%, would mean replacing the energy equivalent of 30m tonnes of fuel oil.

The industry would have to invest about $200bn-300bn in fuel production in 2030 if it only focuses on individual fuel pathways rather than multiple fuels, the report said.

The report said shipping should focus on energy efficiency and on making business cases for ships to run on green fuels.

“Our calculations show that an improvement in energy efficiency of the world fleet would require capital expenditure investment of double-digit billion US dollars in energy efficiency measures on board vessels, while yielding fuel production cost savings of up to a factor of 10 higher towards 2030,” it said.

“The industry needs to recognise the urgency of the situation and build business cases for investing in fuel production and energy efficiency on board vessels. The investment needed now may be substantial, but not stepping up now may prove to be even costlier.”