by Lloyd's List
25 July (Lloyd's List) - MAERSK’S pivot towards LNG has created a butterfly effect in the industry, as other companies were also evaluating options and could follow suit, with readily available LNG enticing shipowners against supply concerns for methanol, according to analysts at Drewry.
Drewry said it expected LNG to be feasible as a marine fuel until 2035 on the back of the FuelEU Maritime legislation, despite concerns over methane slip.
“The recent shift by Maersk towards LNG-fuelled container vessels, while deferring its order for methanol-powered ships, indicates that the shipping companies are circumventing their bets on alternative fuels by investing in LNG,” Drewry said.
The move came against the backdrop of supply concerns for methanol, as Drewry argued that commitments to green methanol supply into the market by 2025 appeared ‘overpromising’ amid persistent economic and technological barriers especially for biomass gasification.
Maersk expects to receive first deliveries of renewable hydrogen derived e-methanol from Danish supplier European Energy by 2025.
The company was recently reported to be planning an order for at least 12 dual-fuel LNG vessels in August, despite previously having ruled out LNG in favour of methanol.
LNG led alternative fuel vessel newbuilding orders in the first half of 2024 with 109, while methanol orders stood at 49, according to Clarksons. The LNG figure was 51 excluding LNG carriers.
Meanwhile, Drewry estimated over 1,100 LNG-powered vessels to be in service by 2029.
Clarksons said around 50% of orderbook tonnage was alternative fuelled, as it forecast over a fifth of all fleet capacity to be alternative fuel capable by the end of this decade.
Despite the rising orders for alternative fuel newbuildings, Clarksons pointed to potential bottlenecks in future fuel supply, as it argued that investments in port infrastructure and green fuels continued to lag.
There were 273 ports with LNG bunkering and 251 ports with shore power connection in place or planned, while there were only 29 ports with methanol bunkering available and planned, according to Clarksons.
The shipbroker estimated global shipping greenhouse gas emissions to increase by around 3% in 2024 to 1bn tonnes of CO2 on a full lifecycle basis.
