21 May 2024 (Lloyd's List) - THE Houthis are still attacking ships, but not as far out to sea as feared.
More than three weeks have passed since the militants’ last successful strike on a ship far outside their traditional strike zones, suggesting threats of a “phase four” are just that — or are harder to carry out than expected.
The April 26 attack on containership MSC Orion (IMO: 9857157) in the Indian Ocean was the first confirmed in the area since the Houthis pledged in mid-March to target ships diverting around the Cape of Good Hope.
The strike raised concerns the Houthis had the ability to hit ships relatively far from the parts of Yemen they control. They warned the beginning of May they would attack ships in the Mediterranean Sea in a so-called “new phase”.
Several vessels have been targeted since then, but all within the established threat area encompassing Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the western Gulf of Aden.
The latest attack was on May 17 on the crude oil tanker Wind (IMO: 9252967), approximately 96 nautical miles south of Al Hudaydah.
The Houthis will continue to target ships that fit their threat profile. This includes vessels linked to Israel through ownership and ships that call at Israeli ports, as well as vessels that are part of a fleet whose other ships may trade with Israel. The Houthis also consider US- and UK-affiliated ships valid targets.
While the Houthis may try to hit ships further out, in the eastern Mediterranean and Indian Ocean, but this would be hard.
EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly said: “For the former, the Houthis would have to successfully fly through one or a combination of Saudi Arabian, Jordanian, Egyptian or Israeli air spaces, and would have to get through many air defenders in the Red Sea.”
In both instances it would be difficult to target at such a range, Kelly said.
Risk Intelligence Middle East and North Africa analyst Kais Makhlouf added: “In practice, the feasibility of the Houthis’ threat at these ranges is secondary to the political effect of the announcement.
“The purpose of the Houthi campaign has been first and foremost political, and given Houthi capabilities, any threats aimed at ships outside the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea are likely to be largely, if not exclusively, rhetorical.”
The bolder threats have not dented Red Sea maritime traffic. In fact, last week there were an average of 243 ships actively transiting each day, the highest number recorded since February.
Transits through the Bab el Mandeb are also stable, with 231 cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt passing the chokepoint last week, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data.
Before the crisis some 544 ships would transit the Bab el Mandeb in a normal week.
