13 February 2024 (Lloyd's List) - THE Houthis will continue to pose a risk to shipping even if Israel withdraws from Gaza and a ceasefire holds, say security and geopolitical risk analysts.
Some 30 ships have been attacked or targeted by the Houthis since mid-November when the militant group first started attacking ships in support of the Palestinian cause.
Yemen’s Iran-backed militant group says they will stop targeting ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden only when Israel ends its Gaza offensive.
While analysts agree a halt in hostilities between Israel and Hamas would likely lead the Houthis to either reduce or pause maritime attacks, they warn the threat will remain.
Ian Ralby, maritime and international affairs expert, and founder and CEO at IR Consilium, calls the Houthis hypocrites with the onslaught of attacks purely for selfish gain.
Ralby said: “They are doing this for themselves, not the Palestinians. If the Gaza crisis ended, they would still do what they are doing as they have their own ambitions in mind; they are just conveniently using the excuse of the Palestinians.”
The Houthis, he added, are motivated by the desire for more territory.
In response to Houthi aggression, the US and its allies are trying to strike a balance between disrupting the Houthis without further escalation.
This strategy has increased likelihood that the Houthis will continue to see maritime as a means of exerting influence.
EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly said: “The Houthis have demonstrated both their capability and intent to attack shipping in response to regional developments. They will likely support other regional resistance operations where possible, in part because the US response to their attacks has been fairly restrained and minimal in the grand scheme of things.”
The US, acting both unilaterally and alongside coalition forces, has been launching strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen for several weeks to prevent further attacks in the Red Sea.
The Pentagon says they have “destroyed or degraded” more than 100 missiles and launchers, plus other weapons and related systems since January 11.
However, the strikes have failed to deter the Houthis from continuing to target commercial ships, expanding targets to include British and American ships.
The strikes have also done little so far to reassure the shipping community of safe passage through the Red Sea. Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows transits through the Bab el Mandeb are still down some 55% compared with normal trading conditions.
Approximately 231 cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt transited the strait last week. This was down 4% on the previous seven days.
There are early indications that Bab el Mandeb traffic could be stabilising, even if there has been no resurgence in Red Sea activity as companies continue to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope.
Some 623 passings were recorded via the Cape of Good Hope in the week ending February 11, up 59% on normal volumes.
Arran Kennedy, a researcher at Control Risks Kennedy, said that even if hostilities ceased, there is still no guarantee ships would return to the Red Sea on mass.
“Following an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, vessel operators that have diverted won’t immediately resume transits — but await either statements from the Houthis, diplomatic channels and regional and international states that the group intends to halt attacks, or after a sustained cessation of attacks over weeks.”
