8 January 2024 (Lloyd's List) - GLOBAL container volumes saw an annualised 8.4% increase in November to 14.9m teu, according to the latest figures from Container Trades Statistics, but fell on a monthly basis by 2.6% as the limited uplift from the peak season wore off.
As in previous months, the growth figures need to be seen in the context of the sharp decline in volumes during the second half of 2022, and indicate a “gradual levelling of global volumes”, with November 2023 year-to-date liftings just 0.2% behind the corresponding period in 2022.
In terms of teu/miles, which more accurately records the capacity required by carriers, the development is slightly more positive, growing by 10.7% year on year.
When looking at annual average growth rates from 2019 to give a longer view, the current market appears more buoyant, however.
“Following the outright decline in demand in late 2022, the months of March to July 2023 saw the market languish at the same level of demand as seen pre-pandemic,” said Sea-Intelligence chief executive Alan Murphy.
“But in recent months, the market has clearly been on a positive trend towards higher growth again.”
He warned, however, that this growth remained subdued compared to an expected baseline of around 3% per year.
And when looking at head haul demand, which was responsible for keeping ships full on the higher earning leg of a voyage, the 2.9% annualised growth was insufficient to meet the growth in the fleet since the start of the pandemic-induced ordering boom.
“The outlook for the around 8% fleet growth in 2023-2024 becomes problematic,” Murphy said.
Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen also pointed to the muted nature of growth over the longer term.
“Compared to November 2019 before the pandemic, demand is only up 6% and hence the annualised growth rate over the past four years has been a relatively anaemic 1.5%,” he said.
“But, to be fair, apart from a 1.7% annualised growth rate in September 2023 this is the best we have seen since the end of 2021.”
On a trade lane basis, Asia-North America volumes stabilised in November, with a slight increase of 0.4% compared to October 2023, according to CTS.
“These volumes represent a 20.2% increase over November 2022, reflecting how dramatic the collapse was last year,” it said.
Asia-Europe trade in November continued the upward trend year on year and year to date, showing increases of 8.8% and 6.8%, respectively.
However, compared to October 2023, volumes were slightly down at 0.8% lower than October.
“By contrast, the volumes in the Mediterranean continued their remarkable performance with a 20.3% increase on a year-to-date basis,” CTS said.
Real performance gains came from regional trades, including the Indian sub-continent and the Middle East, where imports were up 11.4% on last November and 11.5% on a year-to-date basis.
Sub-Saharan Africa also saw strong gains on both an annual and year-to-date basis for both imports and exports, CTS said.
CTS’ price index has also finally stopped falling, remaining at 69 in November, but remains at the same level it was in December 2019.
“Price indices for the main trades have begun to stabilise,” CTS said.
“The Far East to Europe trade was at 137 in November 2022 but now stands at 59; this represents an increase compared with October 2023 of two points, representing the first increase since January 2022; however, then the index was in the dizzy heights of the 290s.”
The stalling of the price index suggested that the overall market might have reached a floor, CTS said, but overall volumes continued to “flatline”.
But it pointed to the current situation in the Red Sea as potentially causing a shift in volumes and rates into the new year.
“With the present challenges we have seen in the Red Sea region and having to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, capacity oversupply may be the least of the markets issues,” it said.
“There will inevitably be a follow-through to rates and volumes if the problems persist for a significant time.”
