Titled ‘A Rockey Recovery’, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its April World Economic Outlook report this month, with a somewhat tentative outlook. The report’s overview highlighted, “The outlook is uncertain again amid financial sector turmoil, high inflation, ongoing effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and three years of COVID.”

The IMF estimates the global GDP will bottom out this year but will start to recover slowly in 2024. Advanced economies will witness an “especially pronounced growth slowdown,” says the report, from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023. However, the report acknowledges that the supply chain disruptions are relaxing, inflation-related pressures on the market are unwinding, and the challenges connected with energy and food markets are receding.

Looking at the global outlook, the IMF forecasts that the growth will fall “from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, before rising slowly and settling at 3.0% five years out––the lowest medium-term forecast in decades.”

When it comes to imports and exports, the report anticipates imports from advanced economies to grow by 1.8% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. Exports for advanced economies are expected to grow somewhat more than imports at 3.0% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. For emerging economies, imports' recovery in 2024 "is much sharper, at 5.1% from 3.3% in 2023," says Sea Intelligence in a recent analysis. The exports for emerging economies will witness a growth of 1.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024.

An interesting observation reported by the IMF is that both Germany and the UK are expected to fall into recession this year. The economic outlook for Germany is estimated to fall by -0.1% and by -0.3% for the UK. For the US, the IMF predicts economic growth of around 1.5% to 1.6% in 2023. As for China, the report projects a 5.2% growth in 2023 and 4.5% growth in 2024.