EMERGING economies have begun to play a bigger role in global trade and are poised to do so in 2026 and beyond.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data show that growth in merchandise trade volumes by countries in emerging-market economies grew sharply this year, exceeding the growth that was seen by the US.
Commodity and shipping experts expect emerging economies to continue growing their presence in international trade.
The World Bank’s latest commodity outlook sees commodity prices falling to their lowest level in six years in 2026.
“We expect the energy price index to decline [by] about 12% this year and we also expect another decline next year,” said World Bank senior agriculture economist John Baffes on a podcast with Maersk yesterday.
This will be the fourth consecutive year of decline. Global commodity prices are set to decline by another 7% next year.
But some commodity prices are set to be stable to firm. Export restrictions by China on fertilisers are poised to keep fertiliser prices firm, while sustainability concerns have supported prices for tropical commodities such as coffee and cocoa according to Baffes.
Because of this, emerging economies involved in producing tropical commodities and fertilisers could participate more in international trade by capitalising on climate issues and export curbs respectively to sell cargoes at higher prices, while enjoying better margins with reduced energy prices.
Countries heavily involved in tropical commodity production include Vietnam, India, Brazil, Indonesia and west African countries for cocoa. These countries are also part of major corporations’ China Plus One strategy.
Lars Jensen, chief executive at container shipping analytics firm Vespucci Maritime, noted that Asia and Africa have had a growing presence in global trade, catching the attention of carriers.
Jensen sees Asia and Africa playing significant roles in the long term, given demographic shifts in these regions. And there is merit to this.
Statista data shows that North Africa, Latin America Western Asia have the youngest population profiles globally, having 32%, 22% and 29% of their population aged 15 and below.
Additionally, OECD expects G20 emerging economies to sustain its firm real gross domestic product growth into 2026, exceeding the world’s and G20 advanced economies’ projected growth.
But because of geopolitical volatility, Jensen curbed his bullishness for Asia and Africa in 2026. “If it hadn’t been for all the geopolitical turmoil, 2026 would have been the ramp up on [Asia and Africa].” He added that these regions would play a much bigger role in the longer term.
On the other hand, Baffes sees the geopolitical turmoil supporting emerging economies next year. “I would say that Latin America, from the agricultural and grain perspective…I think this is the region that is likely to benefit the most.”
Baffes was referring to trade tensions that have pushed China away from importing US soyabeans as it looks to navigate tariffs with the US. Baffes saw Brazil step up to fill in the big gap left by the lack of Chinese buyers.
Maersk head of ocean product Johan Sigsgaard noted that the geopolitical turmoil had made it difficult for carriers as they have had to pivot between origins as sourcing needs change on the fly.
“From our perspective, let’s say there is a shift between China and Thailand. This could happen in a couple of weeks. Now suddenly there is a sourcing shift there and now we look [at] how we create more space from Thailand, for example.”
Sigsgaard emphasised that having a good network went a long way in aiding the carrier in finding room to stay nimble and adapt to sudden changes in supply chain requirements.
