8 April 2024 (Lloyd's List) - CONTAINER volume growth showed a strong annual uptick in the first two months of this year as the artefacts of the pandemic continue to wash out, but when viewed over a longer time span, growth remains relatively weak.
Figures from Container Trades Statistics show February volumes of 13.3m teu, down 7.8% on January, but up 12% on February 2023.
The first two months of 2023, however, saw a severe slump in volumes as the demand surge of the pandemic wore off and overstocked inventories were run down rather than replenished.
On a year-to-date basis, volumes are up 10.7% on 2023, but just 0.7% on 2022.
At a regional level Asia and sub-Saharan Africa saw growth of 15% and 13%, respectively.
“In contrast exports to Europe and North America started to show some green shoots, showing a year-to-date improvement, with February 2023 at 2.6% and 6.2% respectively,” CTS said.
“The import regions showing strength in the first two months of 2024 were North America and Australasia and Oceania, with increases of 20.1% and 20.4% respectively compared to 2023.”
Asia-North America volumes for February 2024 were 25.2% down compared with January 2024 and 28% higher than February 2023, it added.
“The contrasting year-to-date comparisons are more interesting, with a 25.4% increase compared with 2023 but a 9.3% reduction compared to the first two months of 2022.”
Over a longer time horizon, however, growth in container demand remains weak, according to Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen.
“If we compare January and February 2024 to 2023 it is an annual growth of 10.7%, which offhand appears strong,” he said.
“But, as was also the case in September to December 2023, this is due to a comparison with a very low base a year prior.
“If we instead compare January and February 2024 to the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, the growth in total has been 8.1%. This is equal to an annual average growth rate of 1.6%.”
This was in line with that seen in September to December 2023 as an annual growth rate compared to 2019.
“Overall, 2024 has started out on the same demand growth path as we saw in the final four months of last year,” Jensen said.
That slowdown was reflected in CTS’ price index, which stalled in February after a Red Sea-related sharp increase in January. It now sits at the same level as in April 2023.
Despite some increases on trades affected by Red Sea rerouting, as well as some strength on the transatlantic, the indices remained flat on most trades, CTS said.
“Global TEU volumes continued to grow stronger than last year,” CTS said.
“However, all this has done is to bring the volumes back in line with the early months of 2022. Despite the stretching of capacity, the price rises have broadly flattened out, with the notable exception of North American cargoes from Europe and the Far East.”
