by Mattia Micheli, SeaNewsEditor
As reported by Seatrade Maritime, a communication by the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) has confirmed the Trade Unions’ position. However, the mandatory 72-hour notice has not yet been given to the authorities, leaving the customers uncertain.
Section 514 of the International Longshoremen Warehouse Association (ILWA) maintains its previous stance, supporting the workers who wish to strike.
These threats follow the long and complicated path of negotiation after the previous agreement between BCMEA and ILWA expired on 31 March 2023.
The only previous strike attempt in July was declared illegal by the Canadian Industrial Relations Bureau (CIRB). Immediately after, the ILWA’s legal office notified the intention to vote on a new strike request, which is now officially confirmed.
Workers are now threatening to shut down the ports of Port Prince Rupert (CAPPR) and Vancouver (CAVAN). However, this situation is not favourable for logistics in the region and can be considered a "low-impact disruption" for the local supply chain.
This is true for two reasons:
The volume
If we closely observe data related to the port’s volume in the impacted period (likely the third quarter of the current year), it can underline the historical volume performances.
Vancouver
Analyzing data related to the port's volume during the affected period (likely the third quarter of the current year), we see historical performance in terms of volume.
After reaching a peak in average import numbers over four months in 2020, a general negative trend can be observed. Each year, towards the end of the year, the average number of containers entering the port decreased.
A similar pattern can be seen with exports, where the downward trend is evident throughout the analyzed period, with a minor increase between 2022 and 2023.
Only in 2023 did the monthly average volume of exports grow compared to the previous year.
Port Prince Rupert
The smaller Prince Rupert port facility, located about 750 km north of Vancouver, shows a more pronounced decline.
After peaking in 2020 (with an average of 63.000 monthly TEUs, worse than Vancouver's lowest performance during the analyzed period), the average volume continuously fell.
In 2023, the average number of imported containers was nearly 29,000 monthly TEUs, about 46% less than in 2020.
Also, a view of the export volumes in CAPPR confirms the same tendency of Vancouver, with a constant decline from 2018 to 2022. Here, differently, the value remains stable for two years, between 2020 and 2021, the piking between 2022 and 2023 is more pronounced.
The alternative links in the supply chain
If a major strike blocks the ports completely, the local market might not automatically be heavily damaged. An alternative route would need to be found
This alternative route must absorb the impact without causing longer waiting times, effectively storing containers and redistributing them to various destination hubs. This is easier if the alternative facility is close to the original one and well-connected to regional hubs.
One promising candidate is the port of Seattle/Tacoma, which can act as a "bridge" between the sea and the supply chains in the US and Canadian hinterlands, bypassing the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert.
The port of Seattle/Tacoma is located about 200 km south of Vancouver and 930 km from Port Prince Rupert and ranks 58th in the Lloyd’s List Top 100 Container Ports 2023 edition. The North-Western Port Alliance (the authority of the Seattle/Tacoma port) is well-connected to regional hubs and should handle increased traffic.
However, this does not mean that delays and congestion cannot occur if there is a strike in Canada. Nonetheless, due to the small volumes and alternative ports, it is unlikely to create an emergency similar to the East Coast port strike threatened by the ILA for October.
