27 June 2023 (Lloyd's List) - THE container shipping sector faces a wave of capacity that could see the global fleet past the 30m teu mark as soon as 2025.
It was only in 2017 that global fleet capacity hit 20m teu but the deluge of newbuilding orders over the past two years is set to see that level increase by half in less than a decade.
Figures from Clarksons indicate that 2m teu will enter service in 2023, with another 2.5m in 2024, and early estimates for 2025 add another 1.9m teu.
“By the end of 2025, we provisionally project the fleet to have reached 30m teu, standing more than 30% larger than at the start of 2020 and 15% larger than current levels,” Clarksons said. “No wonder ‘choppy’ market conditions are expected.”
The surge in capacity growth will come from the large number of larger vessels joining the fleet.
Clarksons expects vessels of 17,000 teu and larger will increase by 80% in capacity than at the start of 2020 and will grow by 16% this year alone. The more versatile 12,000 teu-17,000 teu range will more than double in capacity terms when compared with 2020.
At the other end of the scale, however, there is likely to be a contraction in capacity, as smaller, older vessels head towards demolition.
The 3,000 teu-6,000 teu range will shrink by 2% by the end of the period compared with the start of 2020, while the sub-3,000 teu feeder sector is expected to shrink by 8%.
“Uneven fleet growth could see the average boxship size increase to about 5,200 teu by the end of 2025,” Clarksons added.
The need to move to more environmentally acceptable tonnage was partially responsible for the renewal of the fleet, it added, with 16% of the current fleet due to be older than 20 years by 2025, if they have not already been scrapped.
“The delivery wave will see many greener ships join the fleet, with the share of fleet capacity ‘eco modern’ set to rise from 37% in June 2023 to 51% by the end of 2025, while 10% of fleet capacity is projected to be alternative fuel capable by end of 2025, up from 3% today, with the LNG dual-fuel share growing from 2% to 8%, and the first methanol deliveries filtering through,” Clarksons said.
The influx of newbuildings will help consolidate the position of larger liner operators, Clarksons said.
“The top 10 liner companies directly own 56% of orderbook capacity and are likely to operate at least 79% taking into account-chartered tonnage,” it said.
“Notably, today’s four largest liners — Mediterranean Shipping Co, Maersk, CMA CGM and Cosco — are set to operate at least 51% of the orderbook, with MSC well on its way to the 6m teu of deployed capacity mark.
The impending containership delivery wave would therefore have some clear impacts, from rapid fleet growth and increasing average vessel size to further expansion for the largest liners and stronger green credentials for the fleet, Clarksons noted.
“Once the flood water recedes, the boxship landscape will likely look rather different.”
