2 July 2024 (Lloyd's List) - TRANSITS through the Bab el Mandeb strait were down to 206 last week from 226 the previous week, as Houthi attacks on shipping heat up.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data in June some 927 transits were recorded through the chokepoint, down from 978 in May.

The number of sailings through the Bab el Mandeb has fallen over the past two weeks during a period of intense aggression in the Red Sea.

The decrease is about 5% month on month but is in no way as severe as the drop seen when the situation started to deteriorate in December.

Some 2,088 cargo-carrying vessel passings were recorded in December, falling 38% to 1,299 in January.

The number of active vessels in the Red Sea also fell last week. The average daily number of active merchant ships was 234 from June 17 to June 23, dropping to 203 last week.

The daily number of active ships started to decline on June 24 with numbers starting to stabilise recently in the 180-190 vessel range.

Last week represented one of the most active weeks in terms of reported incidents since the Houthis’ campaign on shipping began in late 2023, with five attacks on ships in seven days, including Mediterranean Shipping Company-owned MSC Sarah V (IMO: 9181675).

Those attacks followed the sinking of bulk carrier Tutor (IMO: 9942627) and the abandonment of cargoship Verbena (IMO: 9522075) earlier in the month.

While Tutor was originally hit by a drone boat on June 12, which resulted in the death of one seafarer, it did not sink until a week later.

Military sources have since confirmed their hypothesis that the Houthis returned to Tutor and placed charges on its hull, which caused it to sink abruptly.

One week later, bulk carrier Transworld Navigator (IMO: 9469924) was hit by drone boat 65 nautical miles west of Hodeidah, Yemen. No injuries were reported and it was able to continue on to Suez.

Footage published by the Houthis (below) shows the view from the drone boat on its approach to Transworld Navigator.

Intelligence company Janes Middle East and Africa editor Jeremy Binnie said the way the crosshairs move on the footage mean the drone boat may have a guidance system that can lock-on to targets, rather than being controlled from an operative in another boat.

This development fits with a pattern of claims made by the Houthis that they possess more advanced weaponry.

The Iran-backed rebel group claim the unmanned surface vehicle that hit Transworld Navigator was armed with a 1,000 kg-1,500 kg warhead, 30 times larger than warheads on missiles previously used by the Houthis.

“Houthi attacks are becoming more lethal, and more difficult to defend against,” said global maritime head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, Martin Kelly. 

“USVs impact vessels at the waterline resulting in significant water ingress as observed during the Tutor attack.”

Aside from more powerful USVs, the Houthis also claim to have used a new anti-ship ballistic missile with a longer range on MSC Sarah V.

The Joint Maritime Information Centre confirmed the containership was targeted by a missile 246 nautical miles southeast of Nishtun, Yemen, far outside of the current main zone of aggression as assessed by JMIC.

Although the Houthis claim to have struck MSC Sarah V, JMIC only confirmed it being targeted.

Kelly said previous Houthi ASBMs had a range of up to 700 km, restricting attacks to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

But if claims of a new weapon are true, he said vessels in the Arabian Sea would also be at risk.

Binnie explained that this extended range could reduce accuracy, as the time between launch and impact is great enough that operatives would have to predict the course of their target vessel very accurately or have the ability to change the course of the missile mid-flight.

 Janes Middle East and North Africa senior research analyst James Trigg said claims of advanced weaponry possessed “a key propagandistic purpose”.

He said the Houthis likely seek “to use these unveiling announcements to create further disruption to international shipping by exaggerating their capability to strike targets with a more varied arsenal and at greater distances from Yemen”.