Despite falling volumes and no indication of a seasonal increase in demand, blanked sailings on the Asia-Europe shipping routes have hit a two-year low this summer. This trend is occurring even with the carriers' orderbooks injecting a steady supply of new capacity into the market.

The capacity management strategy adopted by carriers did not meet analysts’ expectations. In June, China reported a significant 12.4% contraction in its exports, indicating a potential continuation of the 1.3% volume decline reported by Container Trades Statistics (CTS) for May, says the Journal of Commerce (JOC). While Asia-Europe volume data for June is yet to be available, the steep drop in exports implies a continued downturn.

Meanwhile, blank sailings on this route are described as relatively low. Sea Intelligence shipping analyst Adam Szabo told the JOC, “On an aggregate level for Asia-Europe, the last time we saw such low blank proportions was in the summer of 2021, as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted once again for the summer.”

Data from Sea Intelligence reveals that 8.7% of the total capacity on routes from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean was cancelled in July, equivalent to nearly 199,000 TEU. For August and September, 6.4% (140,710 TEUs) and 2.5% (55,391 TEUs) of capacity, respectively, are scheduled to be blanked.

However, the clearer the trade scene in both Asia and Europe becomes, the more carriers advise about blank sailings. Maersk and CMA CGM are among the companies that have decided to cancel some sailings this month. Most recently was an advisory issued on 18 July by Maersk, announcing new capacity adjustment changes on this route “as a consequence of the forecasted reductions in global demand.”