by Lloyd's List

9 January 2025 (Lloyd's List) - THE container liner industry has undergone a major transformation over the past half-decade, fuelled by the windfall profits of the Covid boom, and that transformation is not over yet.

No shipping line has used the upcycle to transform itself more than Switzerland’s MSC. The latest data from Alphaliner highlights MSC’s relentless drive for more tonnage. MSC is so large that it no longer needs alliance partners. Its scale dwarfs all but a few competitors and it continues to grow.

MSC now boasts 6.3m teu of capacity (excluding newbuildings). It increased its on-the-water fleet size by 12% last year, 22% in 2023, 8% in 2022 and 11% in 2021, according to Alphaliner.

Its market-leading gain of 691,743 teu in 2024 was driven by the delivery of 50 newbuildings totalling 548,500 teu, plus secondhand acquisitions and charters.

The top 10 container lines continue to control just over 80% of global capacity, as they have for the past half-decade. However, the market-share mix within the top 10 has changed, particularly when it comes to MSC.

Comparisons to early 2020, just prior to the pandemic, show the enormity of MSC’s gains over this period.

In January 2020, MSC’s fleet capacity was 3.8m teu, trailing then number-one Maersk. Since then, MSC’s fleet has ballooned by 2.5m teu or 67%, leaving Maersk far behind.

In January 2020, Maersk’s fleet capacity was 426,693 teu or 11% higher than MSC’s. As of January 2025, MSC’s capacity is 1.9m teu or 43% higher than Maersk’s.

France’s CMA CGM has also been a big gainer over the past half-decade, but at less than half the scale of MSC.

Between January 2020 and this month, CMA CGM increased its fleet size by 1.1m teu or 42%. Given its newbuild orderbook, CMA CGM looks likely to overtake Maersk to become the world’s second-largest liner company.

MSC and CMA CGM alone accounted for over half of the incremental tonnage added by top-10 liner companies in the past five years.

The former number one, Maersk, increased its fleet capacity by 299,126 teu last year or 7%, largely due to the delivery of 23 newbuildings and chartering-in of additional tonnage, according to Alphaliner.

However, since January 2020, Maersk has posted several years of minimal or negative growth. It has increased its fleet size by just 5% over the past five years – the lowest percentage gain of any carrier in the top 10. Maersk has focused on becoming an integrated logistics provider and capturing revenue across the value chain at the expense of ocean shipping capacity.

China’s Cosco, the world’s fourth-largest carrier, hiked capacity by 9% in 2024 and by 13% since January 2020.

Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth-largest carrier, added 367,009 teu in capacity in 2024, second only to MSC’s gain. “The Hamburg-based carrier only received seven large newbuildings [totalling 158,000 teu], which means that the majority of its fleet increase came from the charter market,” noted Alphaliner.

Hapag-Lloyd has increased its fleet size by 613,054 teu or 36% since January 2020.

At the lower end of the top-10 rankings, two carriers have posted huge percentage gains over the past half-decade, with the caveat that those gains are off a smaller base.

South Korea’s HMM, the ninth-largest carrier, increased capacity by 131% since January 2020, to 896,089 teu this January.

Israel’s Zim, in tenth place, hiked capacity by 167% to 780,172 teu – the highest percentage of any top-10 carrier over the past half-decade.

Last year, Zim added 214,500 teu in newbuilding capacity, but grew its fleet by a smaller amount, 160,765 teu. “Net fleet growth could have been even higher but Zim took the opportunity to terminate many charters that were fixed at elevated rates during the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Alphaliner.

More newbuildings to come

Liner operators have used cash earned during the supply chain crisis to renew their fleets. They’re still booking profits today, courtesy of Red Sea reroutings and strong demand, so they’ve ordered even more tonnage.

The 4.4m teu of capacity ordered last year was second only to the 4.5m teu ordered in 2021, according to Clarksons data. The scale of the orderbook at the end of last year, at 8.3m teu, topped the previous high of 7.8m teu reached in early 2023, according to BIMCO.

Unsurprisingly, MSC and CMA CGM, the companies that grew their on-the-water fleets the most in the past five years, lead the current orderbook rankings. These two companies, more than any other, are funneling profits toward fleet growth.

According to Alphaliner, MSC has 2.1m teu on order, representing 33% of its on-the-water capacity. CMA CGM has 1.1m teu due for delivery, equating to an orderbook-to-fleet ratio of 30%.

Cosco has the third-largest orderbook, 883,862 teu (26% orderbook-to-fleet), followed by Maersk with 774,572 teu (18%) and ONE with 616,572 teu (31%).

Zim, which had the highest fleet percentage gain in 2020-2024, has already received most of its newbuildings and has fallen off the orderbook rankings. According to Alphaliner, “2024 will, for the time being, be the last year of bullish growth for Zim.”